Nonetheless, systemic Turmoil is still evolving, with both the Federal Reserve and U.S. Government continuing to drive uncontrolled U.S. dollar creation, between unconstrained Money Supply growth (irrespective of Balance Sheet Reduction) and uncontained Deficit Spending, with U.S. Treasury Debt currently pushing to break the $31.4 Trillion Debt Ceiling. That said, more commonly, sharp annual declines in recent months have tended to be statistically significant, but not the month-to-month changes. In the charts to the right we show two SGS-Alternate CPI estimates: One based on the pre-1990 official methodology for computing the CPI-U, and the other based on the methodology which was employed prior to 1980. Any solid developments in the ever-deepening U.S. Government Fiscal Crisis will be covered here in the SYSTEMIC RISK Section. (9) April 14th, (Federal Reserve Board). Go to https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/march-2023 for full detail. Under current policy and based on this reports assumptions, it is projected to reach 701 percent by 2096. For those looking to subscribe, please go to the SUBSCRIPTION LINK at the upper left-hand corner of this Web page). March 2023 Real New Orders for Durable Goods -- For fourteen consecutive quarters, through First-Quarter 2023, Real New Orders for Durable Goods (deflated by the Durable Goods PPI, and net of the volatile Commercial Aircraft orders), never has recovered its Third-Quarter 2019 Pre-Pandemic Peak activity. Monthly Annual and Post-Pandemic Payroll Declines Have Stabilized Around Minus Six-to-Seven Percent for the Last Eight Month, Weakest Showing Since 1946 (6) April 24th (Census Bureau). Fed Chair Powell Noted That Surging Money Supply No Longer Boosts the Economy (16) April 3rd (Census Bureau) February 2023 Real Construction Spending) - Despite the usual upside revisions to the prior two months of reporting, February 2023 Real Construction Spending showed its 17th straight month of year-to-year decline (down by 9.5% (-9.5%) from February 2022) [see Note (4)], with First-Quarter 2023 activity track for its fourth consecutive quarter-to-quarter decline, and its sixth consecutive quarterly year-to-year decline. Williams told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, that the true headline . Apparently, neither has the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as detailed in an article by BLS economists John Greenlees and . According to a new study published by the Institute for Applied Economic Research at the University of Tbingen in Germany (IAW), the Greek shadow economy is estimated to average 21.5 percent of . April 2020 Pandemic/Economic Trough Revised Lower by 5.1% (-5.1%) Consumer Inflation: Official vs ShadowStats | Chart of the Week. I realized the GNP numbers were faulty, corrected them for my client (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later) and the model worked again, at least for a while, until GNP methodological changes eventually made the underlying data worthless. Where current inflationary pressures appear to be tied to excessive Monetary stimulus out of the Fed, not due to an overheating economy, still higher interest rates, now, would do little to contain inflation, while at the same time higher interest rates would continue to impair economic activity. In contrast, the usually less meaningfully sampled Housing Starts, tend to be more volatile in revision. CPI Data Series (Subscription required.) ShadowStats Defined "Basic M1" -- Combined Currency and Demand Deposits -- Still Reflects the Extraordinary Liquidity Flight to, and Surge in the Narrower Money Supply Full-Year 2020 Existing- and New-Home Sales Were Highest Since 2006 Money Supply. To ensure that our results are as robust as possible we use multiple sources to estimate its overall size, including data from the ABS, the Black Economy Taskforce (BETF), and the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission (ACIC). ALTERNATE DATA TAB [See the Menu Bar above] provides the latest headline numbers and exclusive ShadowStats Alternate Estimates and related Graphs of CPI Inflation [April 13], GDP [April 27], Unemployment [April 7], Money Supply [April 25] and the ShadowStats Financial-Weighted U.S. Dollar [January 10]. The extent of these effects is uncertain. and growth As repeated here frequently, raising interest rates sharply now only pummels further an already moribund economy, it does little to contain the Feds current monetary inflation problem. Australia's Government Strengthens Grip With By-Election Win. -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Corrected Alternate-GDP estimate, adjusted for the continual understatement of headline GDP Inflation, and the corresponding continual overstatement of growth in the Real GDP, showed a corrected 1q2023 real annualized quarterly contraction of 0.98% (-0.98%), against a 0.50% 4q2022 gain, with an annual contraction of 0.49% (-0.49%) in 1q2023, against an annual drop of 1.16% (-1.16%) in 4q2022. Contact us to discuss your needs. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. ET); Thursday, May 4th, the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis release the March 2023 Trade Deficit (8:30 a.m. Headline March 2023 Producer Price Index (PPI) annual inflation dropped sharply from 4.9% in February 2023 to 2.8% in March 2023, due to the relative easing against the extreme oil and gasoline price spikes triggered by the year-ago Russian invasion of Ukraine. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. -- Severe Systemic structural damage and distortions from the Pandemic-driven Shutdown continues to forestall meaningful Economic Rebound into 2023 and beyond, despite a reopened economy, in context of flummoxed Fiscal and Monetary Policies, and ever-evolving COVID-19 and related circumstances, and the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict. (2) April 27th (Bureau of Economic Analysis), also see Note 17. The 2020 Pandemic-Driven Recession was timed by the defining National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), from Peak-to-Trough, as from February 2020 to April 2020 [2 months, the shortest on record] and from Fourth-Quarter 2019 to Second-Quarter 2020 [2 quarters]. Headline March 2023 Producer Price Index (PPI) annual inflation dropped sharply from 4.9% in February 2023 to 2.8% in March 2023, due to the relative easing against the extreme oil and gasoline price spikes triggered by the year-ago Russian invasion of Ukraine. Search Text. Gross Domestic Product. Noted the by the U of M, Despite the increasingly negative news on business conditions heard by consumers, their short and long-run economic outlook improved modestly balanced by worsening assessments of personal finances due to higher expenses, reflecting the ongoing pain stemming from continued high prices. [Go to http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu for the full details.]. Republishing our charts: Permission, Restrictions and Instructions (includes important requirements for successful hot-linking) Measured against its Pre-Pandemic level, 4q2022 Real GDP had gained 5.03% [previously 5.06% and 5.11%]. If you are a Subscriber and are not receiving, but would like to receive those e-mails, please send a note to johnwilliams@shadowstats.com along with the desired e-mail address. -- Despite recent GDP Benchmark Revisions and current gimmicked reporting, key Economic Series show not only that the Pandemic-driven Economic Collapse was worse than headlined, but also that the still-unfolding Recovery has been much weaker than indicated. Understate inflation and you end up overstating the Real or inflation-adjusted level of growth in GDP. Redefined November Money Supply M1 Just Jumped from 31.7% to 92.7% of Total M2; November 2020 Year-to-Year Growth in the Traditional Money Supply M1 Soared to a Record 53.2%, the Redefined New Series Reflects a Record 348.4% Jump Yet, as discussed here frequently, the problem inflation largely is being driven by the FOMCs still explosive Money Supply and System Liquidity growth, not by an overheating economy. Note also that the period of time in which the blue line departs from the CPI transformation is 2007-2009, a time in which inflation mania was at its peak. HEADLINE ECONOMIC, INFLATION AND MONETARY COVERAGE OF THE LAST MONTH AND OTHER KEY NUMBERS: (1) April 28th (University of Michigan). Continuing Massive Expansions of Federal Government Deficit Spending and Federal Reserve Monetary Stimulus Promise Massive Inflation That said, again, Fiscal Years 2021 and 2022 (FY 2021, FY 2022, FY 2023) circumstances and prospects have continued to deteriorate meaningfully, at an accelerating pace, from conditions at the end of FY 2020 (see the next paragraph), exploding anew into the still unfolding, disastrous FY 2023. Having largely nonfunctional Executive and Congressional branches of the U.S. Government does little to help stabilize the domestic Economy or Inflation. Unemployment. Noted the by the U of M, Despite the increasingly negative news on business conditions heard by consumers, their short and long-run economic outlook improved modestly balanced by worsening assessments of personal finances due to higher expenses, reflecting the ongoing pain stemming from continued high prices. [Go to http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu for the full details.] -- Noted regularly here, New Home Sales (likely the least-reliable, least-meaningful, least-significant and most heavily revised headline series published by the Census Bureau) continued to sink year-to-year. For the month of February 2023, the real Deficit deepened to -l04.6 billion. Part II --REGULAR ALERTS - Weekly Review: ECONOMY, MONEY SUPPLY AND INFLATION ALERTS: Broad Economy continues in downturn, amidst spiking Inflation. If you are a Subscriber and are not receiving, but would like to receive those e-mails, please send a note to johnwilliams@shadowstats.com along with the desired e-mail address. For those looking to subscribe, please go to the SUBSCRIPTION LINK at the upper left-hand corner of this Web page). Despite a small monthly narrowing in the headline March 2023 Unemployment Rate, details remained consistent with an unfolding recession. 1461 soon. (18) March 21st to 22nd (FOMC). The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Near Record Growth of Currency in Circulation Foreshadows Inflation Risk 1461. Noted frequently here and discussed subsequent to earlier FOMC Meetings (March 22nd was the last), little has changed: The Federal Reserves Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hiked the targeted Federal Funds Rate March 22nd by the expected 0.25%, to a 15-year high level of 5.00%, hoping still to induce an imminent Economic Recession, which otherwise already had been in play and deepening for some time, due to earlier rate hikes. (10) April 14th (Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, St. Louis Fed, ShadowStats) [See the Opening Comments on the April 24th annual benchmark revisions to Retail Sales, which continue to show flat to negative annual contractions and quarterly contractions, net of inflation.] Nonetheless, the quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last couple of decades. Consider that March 2023 Basic M1 (Currency plus Demand Deposits [Checking Accounts]) gained anew, month-to-month, still holding at 120.5% above, albeit somewhat shy of the peak 122.5% above its February 2020 Pre-Pandemic level. ET]. For the month of February 2023, the real Deficit deepened to -l04.6 billion. A fully updated Money Supply Special Report will follow. S Y S T E M I C .. R I S K -- FEDERAL RESERVE -(April 25th) Coverage of the March 2023 Money Supply and March 2023 Monetary Base follows in the MONEY SUPPLY AND MONETARY BASE Section, subsequent to this FOMC Section. EXPANDED SHADOWSTATS ALERT: - Intensifying Risks of a Highly Inflationary, Major U.S. Economic Downturn. While the headline number usually is the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, the formal CPI is reported on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, with annual inflation . Shadowstats.com is a website that claims that the government does a piss poor job of keeping track of certain statistics. Mind the Aftershocks: Post-Tantrum Market Calm Unnerves Traders . The FOMC announced in its March 22nd Press Release: Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. India's Jobless Rate Hits a Three-Month High of 7.8%, CMIE Says. That said, there have numerous stories in recent months of misreported, headline employment gains. SHADOWSTATS SUBSCRIPTIONS Economic and financial issues raised here are reviewed more extensively, along with exclusive graphs, and expanded economic, financial market and monetary assessment in subscriber-only Commentaries [monthly going forward], and more frequently on a timely basis in the subscriber-only e-mails of daily changes in the DAILY UPDATE (as the news breaks, see the prior paragraph). The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The annual drop of 22.0% (-22.0%) in March was against a 23.1% (-23.1%) annual decline in February, and was the eighth straight month of annual contraction deeper than minus 20% (go to https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales for details). The Real Housewives of Atlanta The Bachelor Sister Wives 90 Day Fiance Wife Swap The Amazing Race Australia Married at First Sight The Real Housewives of Dallas My 600-lb Life Last Week Tonight with . Battered, Non-Recovered May 2021 Payrolls and Unemployment Confirmed a Still-Ravaged Economy on Par With the Great Depression Dan Heng builds: Sharpen that spear. (5) April 25th (Census Bureau). Signals of renewed, faltering activity increasingly have taken on the mantle of a new Recession. In parallel, the year-to-year pace of March 2023 ShadowStats Alternate CPI inflation eased to 12.9% in March 2023, from 14.1%, from in February 2023. Separately, extended full coverage and graphs of both the Money Supply and Monetary Base and their components follows in the pending Subscriber-only Daily Update E-mail. Indeed, setting up accelerating inflation or hyperinflation, current extreme Monetary and Fiscal stimuli likely will be expanded, not reduced. ShadowStats will re-address these numbers at that time. Yet, as discussed here frequently, the problem inflation largely is being driven by the FOMCs still explosive Money Supply and System Liquidity growth, not by an overheating economy. Ongoing rate hikes at each of the last several FOMC Meetings to reduce inflation, remain counterproductive in the context of an already deepening Economic Recession and resurgent gasoline prices. Broadly, the aggregate Monetary Base had been in decline since hitting a peak in January 2021, but it has turned higher in the last several months. Single-family auths flat in Sep/Oct. If you are not a Subscriber, and wish to be, see the next paragraph. Yet, Fourth-Quarter 2020 New-Home Sales Contracted, as Did Real Retail Sales, Suggestive of Consumers Facing Intensifying Pandemic and Liquidity Issues Republishing our charts: Permission, Restrictions and Instructions (includes important requirements for successful hot-linking), Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting, This material is provided under the ShadowStats.com. A Review-Preview of 2020 into 2024, it will incorporate all the latest economic details. (8) April 18th, (Census Bureau). Separately, the inflation issue is complicated by independently rising gasoline prices, not by any overheating economy! That said, in Business Cycle definitions, an economic downturn traditionally has been known as a Depression, which has two components the Recession and the Recovery. After the economic terror of the Great Depression, economic downturns took on the less-frightening Recession nomenclature. (II) - REGULAR ALERTS Again, as noted after the February 2023 rate hike, despite Fed Chairman Jerome Powells continued downplaying risks for the FOMCs hoped-for imminent Recession, which otherwise ostensibly is why he was raising rates, that downturn already was and is in play. [Posted May 1st, 1:00 a.m. Yet, with the new Fed Funds Rate at a 15-plus-year high (since July 2007), the earlier FOMC rate hikes already are pummeling the economy, but again, not relieving inflation. FOMC Has Trouble Forecasting Inflation One Quarter Ahead, Let Alone Two Years Ahead in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. The pattern of current activity remains consistent with a deepening, albeit not formally recognized Economic Recession. Real year-to-year growth patterns were kinder to the fourth-quarter GDP, with year-to-year growth increasing from 0.88% to 1.57%, and with the gain against Pre-Pandemic Peak Activity increasing from 5.03% in 4q2022 to 5.31% in 1q2023. Despite Talk of Tightening in 2022 or 2023, FOMC Is Easing Anew in Its Latest Actions, Benchmarked Industrial Production Revised Sharply Lower; Both Manufacturing and Mining Were Hit Hard GENERAL COVERAGE: Again, on the Inflation front, it is the bloated Money Supply and gasoline price disruptions that are driving or affecting higher inflation, at present, not an overheating economy. ARCHIVES - VIEWING EARLIER COMMENTARIES. A prospering shadow economy makes official statistics (on unemployment, official labor force, income, consumption) unreliable. B U S I N E S S .. C Y C L E -- RECESSION-DEPRESSION TIMING Updated September 21, 2021 [Full review and update pending in No. In terms of quarter-to-quarter change, despite a sharp monthly decline in March 2023, those January and February auto sales pulled relative real 1q2023 activity up at an annualized quarterly pace of 3.10%, following respective consecutive annualized quarter-to-quarter declines of 3.29% (-3.29%) and 2.35% (-2.36%) in 4q2022 and 3q2022. The U.S. Dollar Is at Its Lowest Level Against the Swiss Franc Since January 2015, Down by 10.0% (-10.0%) Year-to-Year A Weak Dollar Is Highly Inflationary for the United States and Bullish for Gold If you are not a Subscriber, and wish to be, see the next paragraph. November Unemployment and Payrolls Confirmed Stalled, L-Shaped, Non-Recovering Economic Activity Negative Implications Here for the July 29th GDP Benchmarking While the headline number usually is the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, the formal CPI is reported on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, with annual inflation measured in terms . As Tim notes, this is a gobsmacking error. L A T E S T .. N U M B E R S -- See the later SYSTEMIC RISK SECTION -- FEDERAL RESERVE for the current FOMC coverage and detail of February and early March 2023 Monetary Conditions. This is because he states that these numbers have been manipulated over the past 25 years for nefarious political reasons. While the headline number usually is the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, the formal CPI is reported on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, with annual inflation measured in terms of year-to-year percent change in the price index. -- With fundamental U.S. Dollar debasement (inflation) intensifying, irrespective of short-lived games with reduced oil prices, and especially in the context of the Fed and related entities having to balance, bail out or backstop an increasingly troubled Financial System, holding physical Gold and Silver protects the purchasing power of ones assets, irrespective of any near-term Central Bank or other precious metals price machinations to the contrary. Pandemic-Disrupted U.3 Unemployment Effectively Was 9.0% in November 2020, Not the Headlined 6.7% Ongoing rate hikes at each of the last several FOMC Meetings to reduce inflation, remain counterproductive in the context of an already deepening Economic Recession and resurgent gasoline prices. Thereafter, an Expansion is in place until the next formal Peak, which, the NBER does time. That also was in context of a deepening shortfall against its Pre-Pandemic Peak by 1.46% (-1.46%) in 1q2023, versus a 1.22% (-1.22%) shortfall in 4q2022. CPI-adjusted, Real Retail Sales declined by 1.04% (-1.04%) month-to-month in March 2023, down by 1.95% (-1.95%) year-to-year, with First-Quarter 2023 Real Retail Sales declining 0.30% (-0.30%) year-to-year, down for the fourth time in the last five quarters, otherwise gyrating with extreme volatility in recent monthly automobile sales. Measured against its Pre-Pandemic level, 4q2022 Real GDP had gained 5.03% [previously 5.06% and 5.11%]. Shadow previously offered three subscription plans: Shadow Boost ($14.99 per month, or $11.99 per month with an annual subscription) with a basic gaming PC setup, Shadow Ultra ($29.99 per. While the January 2021 Cass Freight Index Gained Year-to-Year for the Fourth Straight Month, It Also Contracted by 1.6% (-1.6%) from Two Years Ago 1461. The CPI-U (consumer price index) is the broadest measure of consumer price inflation for goods and services published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).. Part I --BOTTOM LINE Systemically Dangerous and Perilous FOMC Activity is Likely in the Week Ahead. Trailblazer builds: Strengthen your main character up. 1461. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies. Year-to-Year Gain in Monthly November M1 Jumped to a Record 53.2% from the Prior Record of 42.3% in October, Surged to 65.6% in Week-Ended November 30th -- Headline Fourth-Quarter 2022 GDP inflation (Implicit Price Deflator [IPD}) came in at a revised third estimate of an annualized pace of 3.92% (previously 3.93% and 3.51%), against an unrevised 4.36% in 3q2022, and up by an unrevised year-to-year 6.41% (initially 6.30%), versus an unrevised 7.15% in Third-Quarter 2022, which remained at a 42-year high, outside of the recent inflation spike. Current liquidity and political risks and issues are intensified by potential Hyperinflation, long viewed by ShadowStats as the ultimate fate of the U.S. Dollar. Effectively fully surveyed, Permits were down by a deepening, seasonally adjusted year-to-year drop of 24.8% (-24.8%) in March 2023, against a revised, narrowed 16.5% (-16.5%) [previously a 17.9% (-17.9%) February decline]. He received an A.B. The service costs $49.95 for a single month, $39.95 per month for a three-month subscription and $34.95 per month for a 12-month subscription. Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation. It remains ShadowStats contention that the surging headline inflation is due to FOMC-triggered massive growth in the Money Supply and Monetary Liquidity, as reflected in the highly liquid Basic M1 (Currency plus Time Deposits / Checking Accounts), not due to an Overheating Economy. Shadowstats.comis a website that analyzes and offers alternatives to government economic statistics for the United States. Given mounting U.S. Banking System instabilities, the Federal Reserve continues to spike systemic liquidity with inflation-driving Money Supply creation, which exacerbates the inflation problem. The initial headline annualized quarterly estimate of inflation-adjusted First-Quarter 2023 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed doubly negative patterns of activity. [See the earlier headline Payroll discussions and later FOMC comments.] Summary John Williams from Shadowstats joins me to discuss the new economy post-COVID-19 emergence in the US. In the past, there have been various estimates of the economic impact and the size of shadow economy in Australia by organisations such as the Black Economy Taskforce External Link and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Weakening U.S. Dollar, Rebounding Gold and Oil Prices Foreshadow Rising Inflation, Four Million Unemployed People Are Missing from the Headline Labor Force New Numbers Indicate the Economy Was in a Deepening Recession, Well Before the Pandemic Shutdown and Collapse (7) April 20th (National Association of Realtors NAR). Shadow Government Statistics or Shadowstats is a blog run by John Williams in which he re-analyzes government economic /unemployment published statistics in order to restate them. Please note with the ALTERNATE DATA Tab, that the Money Supply annual growth rates after February 2021 instead are against the February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Level not year-to-year (although both measures are plotted in the subscriber-only graphs). Understate inflation and you end up overstating the Real or inflation-adjusted level of growth in GDP. Moving higher to a 120.5% of its Pre-Pandemic Level, from 119.8% in February and 119.7% in January, March 2023 Basic M1 still is shy of its August 2022 unrevised record level of 123.2%. At present, full economic recovery is not likely until well into 2024 or after. Tourism Research Australia (TRA) provides statistics, research and analysis to support industry development and marketing activities for the Australian tourism industry. Surging prices still reflect the extraordinary Money Supply stimulus following the Pandemic-driven collapse. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen did not describe in her Opening Message for 2021, as she had in 2020, and as her recent predecessors had done, that the current Fiscal Path was Unsustainable. Yet that concept still appeared early in the Opening Summary: The debt-to-GDP ratio was about 100 percent at the end of FY 2021 [around 122% in November 2022 WJW]. -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Corrected Alternate-GDP estimate, adjusted for the continual understatement of headline GDP Inflation, and the corresponding continual overstatement of growth in the Real GDP, showed a corrected 1q2023 real annualized quarterly contraction of 0.98% (-0.98%), against a 0.50% 4q2022 gain, with an annual contraction of 0.49% (-0.49%) in 1q2023, against an annual drop of 1.16% (-1.16%) in 4q2022. Watch part 2 on hyperinflation: https://youtu.be/jzwU_UOwVMIUsing the same data collection and calculation methodologies as the Bureau of Labor Statistics us. First-Quarter 2021 GDP Increasingly Is Set for a Relapsing Quarterly Contraction Evolving Circumstances Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary, Intractable and Deteriorating Conditions Still Signal No Imminent Economic Recovery, Irrespective of Some Bounces in March Activity Against Weather-Driven February Collapses From a revised -101.7 (previously -101.7) billion, from a revised -98.2 billion in December, its worst monthly showing since -112.4 billion in October 2022. John Williams, founder of Shadow Government Statistics, . Noted frequently here and discussed subsequent to earlier FOMC Meetings (March 22nd was the last), little has changed: The Federal Reserves Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hiked the targeted Federal Funds Rate March 22nd by the expected 0.25%, to a 15-year high level of 5.00%, hoping still to induce an imminent Economic Recession, which otherwise already had been in play and deepening for some time, due to earlier rate hikes. Where current inflationary pressures appear to be tied to excessive Monetary stimulus out of the Fed, not due to an overheating economy, still higher interest rates, now, would do little to contain inflation, while at the same time higher interest rates would continue to impair economic activity. I've yet to find someone who has been able to reproduce the claims made by Shadow Government Statistics about the extent to which government agencies are grossly misreporting the U.S. inflation rate. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. Headline March 2023 CPI-U annual inflation eased to 5.0%, from 6.0% in February, again, due to the relative easing of March 2023 energy prices against the oil and gasoline price spikes triggered by the year-ago by Russian invasion of the Ukraine. (17) March 30th (Bureau of Economic Analysis BEA, See Note 2) -- Third and Final Estimate of Fourth Quarter 2022 (4q2022) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [The GDP Alternate Data Tab has been updated] - In continuing downside revision, the third-estimate of inflation-adjusted real 4q2022 GDP revised lower to an annualized quarter-to-quarter gain of 2.57%, in its third and final estimate, from its second estimate of 2.68%, and its initial estimate of 2.89%, versus 3.24% in 3q2022. A new analysis will follow with preliminary April 2023 numbers late this coming week. (9) April 14th, (Federal Reserve Board). IMPORTANT: Commentary postings are advised directly to Subscribers by coincident e-mail, along with a direct link to the posted Commentary and any needed login detail. Headline March 2023 CPI-U annual inflation eased to 5.0%, from 6.0% in February, again, due to the relative easing of March 2023 energy prices against the oil and gasoline price spikes triggered by the year-ago by Russian invasion of the Ukraine. Alternate Gross Domestic Product Chart. COVID-19 vaccines and improved treatment have helped to stabilize a still-disrupted level of economic activity, again well shy of a fundamental, full recovery, yet Pandemic issues, including new variants and vaccination controversies, continue. Per the NAR Press Release, Existing-home sales retreated 2.4% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.44 million. -- In line with FOMC rate hikes, annual Payroll Growth has been slowing for the last fourteen months, from 5.3% in February 2022 to 2.7% in March 2023, suggestive of softening economic activity. Internationally, these activities are more broadly referred to as the shadow economy. 1461 will review the underlying GDP, GDI and GNP numbers. November New-Home Sales Collapsed by a Meaningful 11.1% (-11.1%) in the Month, On Top of Major Downside Revisions to Sales in Each of the Prior Three Months

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