2. This is about getting to a number. Theoretically, this removes the individuals subjectivity and instead bases the calculation on the stage of the opportunity. In this example, if you increase probability of loss based on the SSEB assessment by 40%, then your opportunity pWin drops to 30%. When using the pipeline to develop a forecast however, other measures are needed. This necessarily means you need to calculate two new win ratios; the proposal win ratio for incumbents and the proposal win ratio for new business opportunities. In most CRM systems, the probability of winningan opportunity (or Pwin) is tied to the Stage of the opportunity. Second, the buying habits of the source selection evaluation board (SSEB). SSEB buying habits, competitor teaming decisions, competitor product and/or service quality/availability, etc. GovWin IQ helps make this all happen . K-HFf6 @PmiDF!REzOT|#faX!>GpG"qCP<1~1AW-}3nj< ZI3Mf!q~p+Jt|_D0vK9S>[=09`>Clor{BCHs=w&;osl"}tCK;S%>WTPOxI@ax 05`- 97CG"# }0"{` L9:? The problems come into play because we always want thePwinto be as high as possible for the internal sale of the effort and we rarely examine standings from the customer perspective. Once you . As a side note, contract size is relevant when determining the amount of resources necessary to capture the opportunity. In this example I am only dealing with the SSEB buying habits because I have not covered competitive intelligence. The customer seems amenable to a new service and/or product provider. However, take another moment and look at the other screenshots of types of reports on that same page. top 10 online casinos. In a KPI driven model your Pwin is more grounded as it is driven based upon pre-set organizational standards. Red Team Consulting, LLC (Red Team) is a strategic growth consultancy that helps companies scale in the government contracting market. EZGovOpps Ultimate Member Support can be reached by email at. Important Things to Remember About PWin. In fact, you might feel that they are actually giving you a better sense of what would be going on in your portfolio and in each opportunity. By using PWin as a driver of capture activities, you can keep your focus on the activities that help you winmaking your team more efficient while improving the chances of winning. Then, use a calculation in your spreadsheet to add that % for each opportunity based upon Phase/Stage. Unless we know, we cant possibly proceed from a position of strength. Enter your email address and we will send you password reset instructions. The magic reveals our weaknesses based on accurate representations of where we stand. It also guides and drives people to do the right things at the right time. This is the most common approach, particularly in commercial business using CRMs. We will discuss pWin calculation through an example. How many will slip? Winning on the strength of a clever and well articulated solution is the BEST!! If we approachPwinconservatively, we force ourselves to think about what we can do to make that 40% solid while others fade away to 25% or less through their own folly. Meet the Team. It is a good tool much better that just relying on FBO and other government searches. However you choose to calculate your win rates, though, hopefully this article has encouraged you to explore some ratios you may not have considered before. : Need assistance? Pwincan be expressed by relative probability (high,medium,low) or by a percent (e.g. For example, if you make it to the short list 80% of the time, then your proposal development process is working pretty well. Once you sign-up, you can add 4 additional team members within your EZGovOpps Portal. This is what you will use to assess the variations between your analytical system approach and the BD reps opinion. This button displays the currently selected search type. There exist some fairly commonPwinattributes that can easily generate a baselinePwinlooking at some essential characteristics of all bids. Keep up with the latest in GovCon news, events, and opportunities. EZGovOpps Ultimate Member Support can be reached by email at. The assumptions behind your Pwin determine accuracy. Copyright 2013 EZGovOpps.com. Do not be surprised whenthe BD reps Pwin calculation is on the low side. While its true that every RFP represents an opportunity, its also true that not every opportunity is a good opportunity. Start today. The accuracy of your internal capabilities and customer relations assessments may increase or decrease either factor independent of the other. What was the result? The key is to note that regarding Pwin there are two different topics to consider: 1) calculating Pwin and 2) using Pwin. In this article, Ill drill down into multiple different ways for you to calculate your Pwin. PV, one of the financial functions, calculates the present value of a loan or an investment, based on a constant interest rate.You can use PV with either periodic, constant payments (such as a mortgage or other loan), or a future value that's your investment goal. It is almost as likely that the Pwin of an opportunity will go down as you advance in phases. In many cases a BD representative just enters a % in a Pwin field in a spreadsheet or system. All the actions the capture team takes should impact and inform the PWin calculation. Search Agents monitor new contract activity that matches your interests, Advanced Opportunity tracking and pipeline management, Task-order database management system for forecasting Programs, GWACs and IDIQs, Collaborate with Up to 5 Members of Your Team, OASIS SB Pool 1, 3 and 4 Proceed after Protests Denied, CMS RMADA 2.0 17 Companies Awarded on $5B IDIQ Contract. After you create a formula, you can copy it . I often work with managers who believe that every RFP represents an opportunity, and therefore, its their responsibility to respond to each and every one they receive. This is useful for BD, Capture and Proposal management during the pursuit. Probability of win simply states the likelihood that we will receive an award for the opportunity we plan to capture. The scope of the opportunity aligns with your companys strategic customer engagement strategy. The Magical Mystery Tour of Point-Scoring Bids (Part 2), A Rational Approach to Making Bid Decisions (Part One), 10 Ways to Make an Impact as a Proposal Reviewer - Government Aggregator, 5 Questions with Our New Director of Consulting | Red Team, Capstone Topic: SAM.gov Entity Analysis My Data Analytics Journey, Meaningful measurements of capture readiness, VA T4NG On-Ramp Industry Day: Here are the Highlights, Sail the Seven Cs to Winning Proposal Writing | Red Team Consulting. This Excel loan calculator template makes it easy to enter the interest rate, loan amount, and loan period, and see what your monthly principal and interest payments will be. Your pWin calculation process starts with a determination of capabilities and customer experience. [] but are only valuable when they provide the proposal team with recommendations that improve thewin probabilityand enable the team to make those improvements without jeopardizing the proposal development [], [] Why PWin is the Most Important Bid Decision Criteria [], [] in calculating PWin. Fascinating discussion, Dave, I think there is an aspect that would also be good to include with your list. The advantage of the gross proposal win rate is it provides a single number that you can use to gauge your overall performance between reporting . Create a standard % probability for each Phase/Stage that you use. And, Ill discuss different approaches for using Pwin to manage your pursuits based upon some customer portfolio work that we have done. EZGovOpps is recognized as the nation's leader in providing an affordable web-based business intelligence tool for government contractors. We redesign and reposition. This is an important insight. How can I fix this? (We use a 22-point assessment with interval weighting to determine your initial pWin value.). But, most people use this approach or manual. The magic occurs when we achieve a level of objectivity,enabling us to develop strategies that will improve our win position over time. RecompetePwinnever exceeds 70%. When asked, theyll say something like, Our proposal win rate is ___%. In fact, most sellers should be calculating at least eight proposal win ratios, and maybe more. Im glad you enjoyed it. Or use the AutoSum feature to quickly total a series of values without entering them manually in a formula. For example, some clients have learned they are consistently losing projects with a PWIN of 16% - 30% and are using the GOVPROP.com PWIN Calculator to improve their win rates. Please try again later. } If youre building a team and you have positions you cant fill, you need to use SMA Talent on Demand (TOD)! In R3 WinCenter (our capture and proposal management software for GovCon) we use a standard set of 9 KPIs (what we call Pursuit Progress Assessment KPIs). In this video, Brad Douglas, Executive Vice President of Shipley's Global Operations and APMP Fellow, describes . The information is continuously updated; their support staff is knowledgeable and helpful; and their research team is top notch. Why? As you progress through your capture process you should be regularly evaluating opportunities. How many will be bid and lost? You can update your choices at any time in your settings. PK ! Anything else borders on the absurd. [], [] Written by Jeff Leitner, senior consultant at Red Team Consulting. With TOD, you can find experienced talent, such as Kyle, matched to your exact needs: 19200 Von Karman Avenue, Suite 230, Irvine, CA92612, USA, Technical Management & Engineering Services, The Essential Principles of Winning Proposals, The Essential Guide to Proposal Development, The Essential Guide to Program Architecture, Reinventing the Professional Services Firm, Capture Support and Proposal Development Practice, Kyle Green is a Senior Associate in SMAs. RMADA 2.0 is the second iteration of the Research, Measurement, Assessment, Design and Analysis IDIQ for data and research services to support EZGovOpps is recognized as the nations leader in providing an affordable web-based business intelligence tool for government contractors. When you look at particular opportunities in the portfolio you see that there is very little variation between the manual Pwin and a not manual calculation. It can be customized to reflect your companys philosophy, risk tolerance and strategic objectives. But truthful. Great synopsis on BD/Capture pWin strategy approach. A glance at a portion of the PWin Excel Model. The one constant in Pwin: we consistently . In business development metrics, it is important to calculate an accurate Pwin so you can plan capture and proposal efforts accordingly. And I think worth discussing further. Shipley Associates expressly denies and user . By measuring performance at each stage of the process, however, you gain a more precise understanding of where youre doing well and where you might need to improve. Pwin is the probability that they will win a particular opportunity. You categorize the opportunity by quadrant-current or non-current customer and current or non . All rights reserved. In many cases, the next step is an onsite presentation. This adds value to your pursuit. Pwinmust be accurate,not delusional. Another approach is the use of a customized Pwin Calculator based upon questions. For additional resources to boost your Pwin, follow the links below: See the New Shipley Playbook It ultimately is used to determine 1) our competitiveness and 2) the actions we need to take to improve our chances of winning. Calculate a percentage of decrease. The PWin dashboard shows each iteration of your PWin assessment and allows you to observe how your strengths and weaknesses for that opportunity mature during its capture management process. We use a combined weighting factor of Pgo and Pwin to drive the weighted value of each opportunity. There are 5 key steps to objectively forecast your chances of winning: Determine the right metrics Validate metrics Sell metrics to the organization Apply the metrics rigorously Test and update the metrics. For this purpose, you could use any of the above ways of determining the Pwin. The customer has given no indication that there are performance issues with the incumbent. v= [Content_Types].xml ( Wn0? rI{l$zeg(/y!Dxo7_XcRFH]W7R`P5xr?a}EwJ=o@1_S,_WS@o;(D2 Customers have choices. There are two shot in the dark ratios were going to calculate. button = document.getElementById('submit'); Getting Started/ However, after conversation with the customer, we may find that they really dont like our approach and we revise that down to 25%. The scope of the opportunity aligns with your companys current service offerings. Most organizations dont switch vendors very often. How many prospects will lead to biddable opportunities? The one constant inPwin:we consistently overestimate our probability of success, usually significantly. Shipley has aPwincalculator as well. The #Plan A team tells me that the sweetest, (and most valuable) wins are those when our clients proposal attributes win, despite the price being higher than other bids. You have an official Daisy Red Ryder BB gun, and 15 yards away, hidden in the inky darkness of night, there is a metal can that you have to shoot off a log. 2 You then weight the KPIs and use an algorithm to determine the Pwin. defining bid decision criteria for every bid, This is How to Write a Winning Past Performance, 10 Ways to Make an Impact as a Proposal Reviewer. If youre not already familiar with OASIS SB and the latest on-ramp, please take a look at our previous by ezgov | Sep 19, 2019 | Programs / GWACs / IDIQs. What this tells us is that on a portfolio basis no approach is really any more accurate. Calculate how many Sales Qualified Leads (SQLs) you need in your pipeline to achieve your Revenue Goal. In this example, if you increase probability of loss based on the SSEB assessment by 40%, then your opportunity PWIN drops to 30%. So, you want to look at reports that show the full value of opportunities and the weighted value based upon the Pwin. It does not necessarily mean that it is any less accurate. Lets explore. Put your opportunities in a spreadsheet to include name and value. The advantage of the gross proposal win rate is it provides a single number that you can use to gauge your overall performance between reporting periods or related company divisions. As you move into the pursuit internal gate, you need to include two additional factors to make a pWin determination that will influence the bid/no-bid decision for this opportunity. The result is -0.03000. In addition, I would capture a calculation of Pwin based upon stage and also apply the KPI or question based approach above. Over the last year, Ive worked with customers to do some analysis of their portfolios. Weve implemented this approach in WinCenter for customers based upon their standard criteria. As discussed earlier, the PWIN is a simplified mechanism of giving your management team a gauge of your companys ability to win that specific opportunity and validation for spending bid & proposal (B&P) dollars to perform capture and submit a proposal. You might get lucky every once in a while, but often as not, youre just wasting resources responding to something youre likely never going to win. Probability of win simply states the likelihood that we will receive an award for the opportunity we plan to capture. It happens more often than you imagine. The Pwin Calculator for Platinum subscribers is an opportunity analysis decision matrix to help your business development team establish and use a vetted, . For instance, if a new competitor jumps into the ring in the later phases of the process, your PWIN score should decrease. button.removeAttribute('disabled'); Powerful and intuitive platform for Federal and state/local government BD. Scale2Markethelps businesses strategically position their products and services in the federal marketplace and to execute a custom, disciplined business development framework that wins profitable government contracts. The scoring approach goes something like this: Home Team Pwin is 69/ (69+75+58) = .34 (34 percent) Competitor 1 Pwin is 75/ (69+75+58) = .37 (37 percent) In cell D2, subtract the end time from the start time by entering the formula =C2-B2, and then press Enter. When you see the opportunities with variances, you now know to ask Why?. Members can see their dashboard populate live by selecting their criteria in the Pre-forecast My Profile. By Wall Street Prep 1 Worksheets CATEGORIES Mergers & Acquisitions You can contact Dave at [emailprotected]. } Become Shipley Certified, Copyright 2009-2023 Shipley Associates, All rights reserved, Terms of Use|Privacy Policy | Legal Notices. Your idea of yield is more forward looking, trying to leverage this information to make reliable predictions. As discussed earlier, pWin is a simplified mechanism of giving your management team a gauge of your companys ability to win that specific opportunity and validation for spending B&P dollars to perform capture and submit a proposal. What I therefore prefer to use is the idea of yield. Influencing Probability of Winning Working - Shipley Associates if (button === null) { With our support, our clients continue to beat their fiercest competitors, diversify their portfolio of customers, and achieve their financial goals. Second, if you are responding to an RFP where someone else is the incumbent, your win rate is going to be generally lower40% or lessbecause the buyer is going to be reluctant to replace their incumbent with you. That tells the bid writing team they are doing a simply outstanding job! } (I use a 22-point assessment with interval weighting to determine initial PWIN value.). For example if a team has a record of 32-7-1 the winning percentage should be .813 (32.5/40). Calculates win probability for opportunities based on a standardized evaluation format; Current customer, non-current offering: 75%, Non-current customer, current offering: 50%, Non-current customer, non-current offering: 25%. Ive been impressed by the breadth and quality of contracting information [EZGovOpps] provides. So, we immediately skew the truth with an overly optimistic view of our own capability and credibility. Easily input AQL, MQL, SQL, and SAL data by time period and stage. I believe measuring by proposal stage is the most useful measure as it gives the business manager an overview of the pipeline. If you have a team member that already has an EZGovOpps account, ask them to get add you. Some firms utilize a stage or phased based approach to calculated PWin. No matter how we want to presentPwin, we need to look at some of the factors that affectPwin. var button = document.getElementById('m_signup'); About/ At the end of the day all of this work is about driving more Federal Contract wins. Companies that respond to every RFP they receive are wasting resources. This is precisely what the Short List Win Ratio and the Presentation Win Ratio are designed to capture. Many proposal professionals talk about proposal win rates as if theres only one ratio to consider. Assessing PWin helps capture teams drive capture activities; if youre engaged in a capture task that does not materially improve at least one component of PWin, then youre wasting your time. This is the most subjective approach. Note that if this test does not work out ona portfolio basis, then, your Phase/Stage %s are most likely not correct. The mystery focuses on our inability to baseline an accurate picture of ourselves from the customers perspective. Note that in this report we also track PGo which is the probably that the RFP will actually be released. When sellers talk about proposal win rates, theyre usually referring to the gross proposal win rate. Its also a good way to measure your progress going forward. if anyone can help me with how to correctly express the formula to extract the winning % of trades from a list of trade results. Thats called a shot in the darkand that is exactly what you do when you respond to an RFP that you get out of the blue, where you didnt know about it or pursue it in the months and years prior to the RFP being released. Depending on the industry youre in, the typical RFP process may involve one or more selection steps. Final Thoughts SSEB buying habits, competitor teaming decisions, competitor product and/or service quality/availability, etc.). So the calculation for this opportunitys pWin is: It is important to note that these variables are independent of each other, meaning that your probability of loss and initial pWin do not have to equal 100%. } Alignment of the thinking of all business development stakeholders, Ability to track over time the progress and viability of a given opportunity through the pipeline, More efficient utilization of business development resources, Increased ROI on business development investments. This Pwin Calculator is intended solely as an aid in evaluating the advisability of pursuing business opportunities and should be used in conjunction with other means of research and analysis.
